In the complex world of semiconductor analysis, where technical jargon meets billion-dollar investment decisions, one name has emerged as the gold standard: Doug O’Laughlin. As the founder of Fabricated Knowledge and President of SemiAnalysis, O’Laughlin has built a reputation that few analysts can match. A veteran portfolio manager once remarked that every buy-side shop in the world would drop everything to hire him, calling him “unbelievable at semiconductors.” This isn’t hyperbole—it’s a testament to O’Laughlin’s unique ability to decode the semiconductor industry’s intricate supply chains and translate them into actionable investment intelligence.
With over 81,000 Substack subscribers and recognition as the eighth-largest technology newsletter on the platform, Doug O’Laughlin has transformed semiconductor analysis from an obscure technical discipline into essential reading for investors, executives, and technology enthusiasts worldwide. His work sits at the critical intersection of cutting-edge technology and financial markets, providing insights that shape billions of dollars in investment decisions.
Early Career: Building Foundations at Bowie Capital
Doug O’Laughlin’s journey into semiconductor analysis began immediately after his graduation from the University of Texas at Dallas. Fresh out of university, he joined Bowie Capital, a Texas-based investment firm where he focused on compounders and quality-focused investing. This early experience proved invaluable, providing him with rigorous training in fundamental analysis and long-term value creation.
At Bowie Capital, O’Laughlin worked under the mentorship of Cory Whitaker, to whom he credits much of his development as an investor. The firm’s emphasis on quality businesses with sustainable competitive advantages shaped O’Laughlin’s analytical framework, teaching him to look beyond short-term market noise and identify genuine long-term value drivers. This foundation in quality-focused investing would later inform his approach to semiconductor analysis, where he consistently emphasises companies with genuine technological moats and sustainable business models.
During his tenure at Bowie Capital, O’Laughlin developed the disciplined research methodology that would become his hallmark. He learnt to conduct deep, fundamental analysis that went far beyond reading company presentations and earnings transcripts. Instead, he developed expertise in understanding entire value chains, from raw materials to end markets, a skill that would prove essential when he turned his attention to the semiconductor industry.
The Birth of Fabricated Knowledge
O’Laughlin’s transition to semiconductor-focused analysis stemmed from a profound intellectual curiosity about one of technology’s most important inflection points: the end of Moore’s Law and its implications for semiconductor stocks. For decades, Moore’s Law, the observation that transistor density on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years – had driven the semiconductor industry’s economics. As this trend began to slow, O’Laughlin recognised that the investment implications would be enormous.
He started Fabricated Knowledge as a project to further pursue this fascination with semiconductors and their changing dynamics. What began as a personal research initiative quickly evolved into one of the most respected voices in semiconductor analysis. O’Laughlin’s approach was revolutionary: he combined deep technical understanding with investment-focused analysis, creating research that was both rigorous and actionable.
Fabricated Knowledge is a semiconductor newsletter written with investment professionals in mind, tackling what O’Laughlin describes as a very hard place to understand. His stated mission is simple but ambitious: to explain why semiconductor developments matter and translate technical complexities into what he calls “slightly better English.” This ability to distil technical complexity without sacrificing accuracy has become O’Laughlin’s signature strength.
The newsletter’s growth has been entirely organic, built on the quality of analysis rather than marketing or promotional campaigns. With 81,000-plus subscribers, Fabricated Knowledge ranks as the eighth-largest technology newsletter on Substack, a remarkable achievement in a crowded digital media landscape. The publication covers the semiconductor supply chain from chemical inputs to fabrication facilities to design intellectual property and strategic implications, providing comprehensive coverage that few competitors can match.
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Joining SemiAnalysis: Expanding Influence and Impact
Doug O’Laughlin’s reputation for excellence eventually led to a pivotal career development: joining SemiAnalysis as President. SemiAnalysis, founded by Dylan Patel, had already established itself as a leading semiconductor research firm, and O’Laughlin’s addition significantly enhanced the company’s analytical capabilities and market influence.
As President of SemiAnalysis, O’Laughlin brings deep expertise in semiconductor strategy, market intelligence, and competitive analysis. He plays a critical role in shaping the firm’s strategic direction and building core research analysis, which has become a cornerstone of the company’s growth strategy. His track record of identifying emerging trends and delivering high-impact insights has made SemiAnalysis essential reading for anyone serious about understanding the semiconductor industry.
The collaboration between O’Laughlin and Dylan Patel represents a powerful combination of complementary skills. Whilst Patel focuses on supply chain intelligence and cutting-edge AI developments, O’Laughlin applies his investment analysis expertise to translate these technical insights into actionable investment intelligence. Together, they have built SemiAnalysis into what many consider the preeminent semiconductor research organisation globally.
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O’Laughlin’s work at SemiAnalysis extends beyond traditional research reports. He regularly collaborates on high-profile analyses examining topics ranging from China’s semiconductor strategies to the implications of US export controls. His joint work with Dylan Patel and Jordan Schneider exploring Huawei’s new rack systems and broader strategies to circumvent export controls demonstrates the geopolitical dimension of modern semiconductor analysis.
The Doug O’Laughlin Methodology: Why He’s Different
What distinguishes Doug O’Laughlin from countless other semiconductor analysts is his unique combination of technical depth and investment acumen. Unlike engineers who understand the technology but struggle with market dynamics, or financial analysts who understand markets but lack technical depth, O’Laughlin excels at both.
His research methodology emphasises understanding entire supply chains, not just individual companies. O’Laughlin recognises that semiconductor manufacturing is perhaps the most complex industrial process humanity has ever developed, involving hundreds of specialised suppliers, each contributing essential capabilities. By mapping these relationships and understanding where bottlenecks emerge, he can identify investment opportunities that other analysts miss entirely.
O’Laughlin is particularly skilled at using analogies to explain complex semiconductor concepts. In one memorable podcast appearance, he compared semiconductor supply chain dynamics to restaurant supply chains, helping listeners understand how demand signals propagate through complex networks. This gift for making the incomprehensible accessible has made his work essential for generalist investors who need to understand semiconductor exposures but lack time to become technical experts.
His analytical framework also emphasises capital cycles, the recurring pattern where capital chases high returns until supply overshoots demand, causing returns to collapse. O’Laughlin has written extensively about how this dynamic plays out in semiconductors and artificial intelligence infrastructure, providing investors with frameworks to understand where we are in current cycles and what might come next.
Artificial Intelligence and the New Semiconductor Boom
Doug O’Laughlin has emerged as one of the most insightful analysts covering the artificial intelligence revolution’s impact on semiconductor demand. His work explores how AI is creating unprecedented demand for computational resources, driving massive capital expenditure from technology giants into data centre infrastructure and specialised AI chips.
In his analysis “Capital Cycles and AI,” O’Laughlin examines how the AI boom resembles historical technology buildouts like railroads and the internet, where transformational technologies triggered massive infrastructure investment. He explores whether current AI capital formation represents a speculative bubble or rational infrastructure building, applying his capital cycle framework to assess sustainability.
O’Laughlin’s AI-related research covers critical questions about which semiconductor companies are best positioned for AI growth, where bottlenecks will emerge, and how quickly supply will catch up with demand. His early prediction of Nvidia’s dominance in AI computing, made well before the company’s explosive revenue growth, demonstrated his analytical prowess and established him as a must-read voice on AI infrastructure.
His analysis extends beyond pure technology to examine business models and competitive dynamics. O’Laughlin explores how Nvidia is attempting to disrupt hyperscalers by selling data centres as computing units, creating new cloud service providers like CoreWeave, and fundamentally reshaping the cloud computing ecosystem. These insights prove valuable for investors trying to understand not just what’s happening in AI, but why it matters for financial markets.
Investment Philosophy and Notable Calls
Doug O’Laughlin’s investment philosophy combines rigorous fundamental analysis with keen awareness of industry cycles and competitive dynamics. He focuses on identifying companies with genuine technological moats, sustainable competitive advantages that protect them from commoditisation and enable long-term value creation.
His notable investment theses have included detailed analyses of companies like Rambus, Texas Instruments, and advanced packaging suppliers. In each case, O’Laughlin demonstrates his ability to identify underappreciated growth opportunities or misunderstood business quality that the market has overlooked. His analysis of Oracle’s astonishing cloud infrastructure quarter in 2024 exemplified his ability to spot inflection points before they become consensus.
O’Laughlin is particularly adept at identifying bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain that create investment opportunities. When everyone focuses on chip designers or manufacturers, he examines suppliers of critical inputs like advanced packaging, specialised materials, or fabrication equipment. This contrarian approach has repeatedly generated investment ideas with asymmetric risk-reward profiles.
His investment work also emphasises the importance of understanding non-AI semiconductor markets, which he notes are experiencing deep recession even as AI-related segments boom. This nuanced view prevents investors from making simplistic extrapolations and helps them understand which semiconductor companies will benefit from AI and which face structural headwinds.
Media Presence and Industry Recognition
Doug O’Laughlin’s influence extends well beyond his written research. He is a sought-after podcast guest and conference speaker, regularly appearing on prominent investment podcasts like “Yet Another Value Podcast,” “This Week in Intelligent Investing,” and “Software Snack Bites.” These appearances showcase his ability to explain complex semiconductor topics in accessible, engaging ways whilst maintaining analytical rigour.
His podcast interviews are masterclasses in semiconductor analysis, covering everything from detailed primers on semiconductor manufacturing to specific investment theses on individual companies. Listeners consistently praise O’Laughlin’s ability to distil complexity into digestible insights, with many noting that his explanations helped them finally understand an industry that had previously seemed impenetrable.
Industry professionals regard O’Laughlin as one of the sharpest minds in semiconductor analysis. The endorsement from a veteran analyst who had worked at four multibillion-dollar funds, stating that O’Laughlin was “unbelievable” and that every buy-side shop would want to hire him, reflects the consensus view amongst sophisticated investors. Another prominent investor noted that “every LP in the world should be begging Doug to run a semiconductor fund,” underscoring the respect he commands.
Tarot Capital: Expanding Beyond Semiconductors
Whilst semiconductors remain Doug O’Laughlin’s primary focus, he also co-founded Tarot Capital, an investment-focused publication exploring compelling ideas beyond the semiconductor industry. The venture began as “Mule’s Musings,” where O’Laughlin explored governance-driven investing and other investment frameworks.
In early 2025, O’Laughlin transitioned primary writing responsibilities for Tarot Capital to a collaborator, allowing him to dedicate more time to his essential work in the semiconductor space at SemiAnalysis and Fabricated Knowledge. However, he continues to contribute occasional guest posts and collaborate on investment ideas that emerge from the intersection of fundamental and incentive-driven analysis.
Notable Tarot Capital analyses have included work on companies like Applovin, demonstrating O’Laughlin’s ability to apply his analytical frameworks beyond semiconductors. The publication’s rebranding to Tarot Capital reflects a more structured analytical framework focused on governance, incentives, and value creation dynamics.
The Future of Semiconductor Analysis
As artificial intelligence continues driving unprecedented demand for computational resources and semiconductors become increasingly central to global economic competition, analysts like Doug O’Laughlin will only grow more essential. His combination of technical expertise, investment acumen, and communication skills positions him uniquely to guide investors through the semiconductor industry’s complexities.
O’Laughlin’s work at SemiAnalysis and Fabricated Knowledge represents more than just investment research, it’s essential intelligence for understanding the technologies reshaping our world. As governments worldwide recognise semiconductors as critical infrastructure and companies across industries depend on semiconductor innovation, the demand for sophisticated analysis will intensify.
Doug O’Laughlin has established himself not merely as an excellent analyst but as an institution in semiconductor intelligence. His journey from Bowie Capital analyst to President of SemiAnalysis and founder of one of technology’s largest independent research platforms demonstrates what’s possible when deep expertise meets clear communication and analytical integrity. As the semiconductor industry continues its pivotal role in technological advancement and global competition, Doug O’Laughlin’s voice will undoubtedly remain amongst the most influential in helping stakeholders navigate the complexities ahead.